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CREDIT SUISSE: Huge demographic changes in the US could hit these 14 retail stocks

Andy Clark/Reuters

Curling fan Jasper wears sunglasses designed like handcuffs while attending the World Men’s Curling Championships

The demographic makeup of the US will change dramatically over the course of the next 10 years, and a new report from a group of Credit Suisse analysts led by Seth Sigman shows that those changes could have a big impact on consumer spending and the well-being of certain industries.

According to the report, the following demographic changes will have the biggest impact on consumer spending:

“Lower growth in under 25-years-old cohort.” Declining birth rates will translate into a decline in the growth of people under 25-years-old. The population of this group is set to increase by just 1.3% in the decade between 2016-2026.
“Growing young adult population.” Millennials, the largest population group, are about to enter the “sweet spot for spending.”
“Shrinking middle-age population.” The so-called “middle-age cohort,” people age 45-64, is set to decline by 2.8%
“Growing older population.” The older population, people 65-years and above, is expected to grow by 37.1%.

“Our analysis is most positive for Home Improvement, Leisure-related categories (e.g., RV’s, boats), and Staple categories (Healthcare, Household Supplies, Food at Home) based on expected growth in the young adult and 65+ age cohorts, while less positive for Apparel/Footwear, General Sporting Goods, Home Furnishings, Casual Dining, based on a shrinking middle-age group,” the analysts wrote.

Following are 14 stocks Credit Suisse thinks could be negatively impacted by demographic changes in the US.

Hudson’s Bay Company

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse

JCPenney

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse

Nordstrom

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse

Kohl’s

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse

Macy’s

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse

Phillips-Van Heusen

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse

Ralph Lauren

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse

Denny’s

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse

Bloomin’ Brands

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse

Pier 1 Imports

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse

Williams Sonoma

Demographic driver: Shrinking middle age population, – Old population spends less

Source: Credit Suisse

Dick’s

Demographic driver: Less growth in <25-year-old population.

Source: Credit Suisse

Hibbett Sports

Demographic driver: Less growth in <25-year-old population.

Source: Credit Suisse

GameStop

Demographic driver: Less growth in <25 year old population.

Source: Credit Suisse

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Andy Clark/Reuters

Curling fan Jasper wears sunglasses designed like handcuffs while attending the World Men’s Curling Championships

According to the report, the following demographic changes will have the biggest impact on consumer spending:

“Lower growth in under 25-years-old cohort.” Declining birth rates will translate into a decline in the growth of people under 25-years-old. The population of this group is set to increase by just 1.3% in the decade between 2016-2026.
“Growing young adult population.” Millennials, the largest population group, are about to enter the “sweet spot for spending.”
“Shrinking middle-age population.” The so-called “middle-age cohort,” people age 45-64, is set to decline by 2.8%
“Growing older population.” The older population, people 65-years and above, is expected to grow by 37.1%.

Following are 14 stocks Credit Suisse thinks could be negatively impacted by demographic changes in the US.